Oscar Predictions 2026: My Picks for Every Category

The 98th Academy Awards are Sunday, March 15, 2026, and this is one of those years where the top of the ballot is basically a two-film heavyweight fight.

On one side: One Battle After Another, the season’s guild-and-industry juggernaut (PGA + DGA is the classic Best Picture/Director combo). On the other: Sinners, the nomination leader with 16 nods and real late momentum thanks to SAG. I’m using the same logic I use every year: guild wins + broad industry consensus for the major categories, then “who’s peaking at the right moment” for the chaotic ones. All picks below are among the official nominees.

The full ballot: predicted winners in every category

Best Picture One Battle After Another — PGA + overall “most broadly embraced” profile usually seals this.

Directing Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another — DGA winner + BAFTA director is the cleanest path on the board.

Actor in a Leading Role Michael B. Jordan, Sinners — SAG win at the exact right time; feels like the “moment” performance.

Actress in a Leading Role Jessie Buckley, Hamnet — the closest thing to a lock: SAG + BAFTA + clear season-long frontrunner.

Actor in a Supporting Role Sean Penn, One Battle After Another — SAG + BAFTA makes this feel like the safest acting bet after Buckley.

Actress in a Supporting Role Amy Madigan, Weapons — the “beloved veteran finally gets her Oscar” narrative, plus SAG support, is hard to ignore.

Screenplays Writing (Original Screenplay) Sinners (Ryan Coogler) — BAFTA went for it, and it’s the kind of bold, crowd-pleasing writing win the Academy likes when a film is culturally loud.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay) One Battle After Another (Paul Thomas Anderson) — fits the “Best Picture also wins a screenplay” trend, and it already won big at BAFTA.

Animation, International, Documentary

Animated Feature Film KPop Demon Hunters — big pop-culture footprint + the most “in the conversation” animated contender all season.

International Feature Film Sentimental Value (Norway) — BAFTA’s non-English winner + very strong across the season; The Secret Agent is the main threat.

Documentary Feature Film The Perfect Neighbor — the consensus “now” documentary: relevance + impact + strong support across prediction desks.

Shorts (the chaos zone)

Documentary Short Film All the Empty Rooms — the kind of emotional gut-punch that tends to win when voters actually watch the slate.

Animated Short Film Butterfly — artistic ambition + a story that lands; feels like the “most Oscar-ish” of the group.

Live Action Short Film Two People Exchanging Saliva — buzzy, bold, and “most cinematic,” which often wins this category.

Craft categories

Casting Sinners — new category, and this feels like where voters reward the film’s ensemble power if it falls short in Picture.

Cinematography One Battle After Another — the season’s visual flex with the most precursor strength.

Film Editing One Battle After Another — editing often tracks with Best Picture, and BAFTA already backed it.

Production Design Frankenstein — when a movie is this designed, the Academy usually checks the box.

Costume Design Frankenstein — same logic: maximal craftsmanship.

Makeup and Hairstyling Frankenstein — prosthetics + transformation showcase = classic winner profile.

Sound F1 — racing movies + sound branch = a very real pattern, and it already won at BAFTA.

Visual Effects Avatar: Fire and Ash — the “don’t overthink it” pick; Avatar tends to own this lane.

Music

Music (Original Score) Sinners (Ludwig Göransson) — BAFTA win + the most signature, identity-defining score of the nominees.

Music (Original Song) “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters — the pop juggernaut pick (and the one voters will have actually heard).